Travel Outlook 2026: Trends, Risks, and Opportunities

In partnership with TTG Media, PwC surveyed 42 travel leaders and 2,000 consumers to understand general sentiment towards travel in the current climate, amidst the ongoing Middle East crisis and economic uncertainty.

Summary of findings

Current trading:

Travel leaders report bookings up in the year-to-date, by an average of around 4%.
Bookings are slightly down on expectations, with the lates market of particular importance this year.
Continued consumer caution is impacting booking trends, with many looking for discounts or cheaper alternatives to make holidays more affordable.

Outlook:

The overall sentiment on the outlook for the market is positive.
Opportunities for growth are seen in a number of areas, including tapping into demand for new destinations, off-peak travel and more experiential travel.
There remain concerns over the strength of consumer demand, the potential impact from shocks such as conflicts or extreme weather and cost inflation – issues that will require both careful planning and flexibility to adapt to.

Travel Leaders' Outlook

Methodology: PwC survey of 42 travel leaders in May to understand how trading is going year-to-date, and what their views are on the outlook for 2026.

Overview

TTG Media and PwC have been surveying and collecting data from travel leaders since 2020, building up a clear picture of travel leader sentiment. The latest survey, conducted in May 2026, found travel bosses' outlook for the market are more cautious than those expressed in 2025’s surveys.

Half of respondents think the outlook is positive, but with ups and downs expected, while 45% believe we remain in the middle of a crisis period or have worse to come.

Operator outlook over time

% respondents across survey waves

Still have the worst to come

Still in the middle of a crisis period

Past the worst and on the path towards recovery

Outlook is positive but there will be ups and downs

Outlook is positive

23%

62%

15%

Aug-24

12%

76%

Feb-25

86%

Aug-25

50%

40%

May-26

Source: Strategy& and TTG operator survey

Year to date is a mixed picture

Travel companies are reporting bookings marginally up year-to-date (net up 12%). On average the companies surveyed have achieved around 50% of their annual booking target so far in 2026, but there is a very mixed picture across companies: around a third say they have met less than 40% of their booking target, while 5% have reached 90% or over.

Year-to-date trading is down versus expectations for a lot of companies, but not universally so (8% significantly behind, 45% behind, 25% in line with expectations, 15% ahead and 8% significantly ahead). Late bookings have been stronger than expected for many – 45% of respondents reporting they are ahead of expectations.

Year to date trading is down vs expectations for a lot of companies, but not universally so

How have 2026 year to date bookings been against expectations? — % of respondents

45%

25%

15%

Significantly behind expectations

Behind expectations

In line with expectations

Ahead of expectations

Significantly ahead

Significantly behind expectations

45%

Behind expectations

25%

In line with expectations

15%

Ahead of expectations

Significantly ahead

Overall net down 30%

Source: Strategy& and TTG operator survey

Fall-out from the Middle East crisis

As would be expected, the impact from the Middle East crisis is cited as being the key barrier to growth by travel companies, with its impact on consumer demand noted by 76% of respondents, its impact on travel logistics cited by 48%, and its impact on jet fuel availability and pricing named by 38% (multiple responses).

The Middle East conflict is the key issue being cited by companies at the moment, as well as holiday affordability

What are the biggest barriers to growth? — % of respondents (multiple responses)

Consumer

Supply

Costs

Other

Impact of the conflict in the Middle East on consumer travel demand

76%

Impact of the conflict in the Middle East on travel logistics

48%

Consumer concern over household finances

40%

Impact of the conflict in the Middle East on jet fuel availability / pricing

38%

Consumer cost of holidays being high

21%

Disruption caused by flight cancellations, strikes etc

14%

Other

12%

Lack of airline capacity for key routes

12%

Entry requirements for UK holidaymakers (EES/ETIAS)

10%

Impact of other conflicts / geopolitics on travel

Other operating cost inflation

Anti-tourist sentiment in destinations

Source: Strategy& and TTG operator survey

Discounting fears

Companies are trying to drive late bookings through marketing and discounting. There is concern though that discounting is impacting consumer price expectations and booking behaviours – 48% of respondents believe consumers are expecting lower prices, and the same number believe consumers are booking later to pick up a discount.

Operators are trying to reduce the need for discounting by setting prices lower to secure early bookings, and by limiting capacity to avoid the need to discount to fill capacity. At the same time, competitor discounting was noted as the top concern of 10% of respondents (consumer capacity to travel and rising costs ranked higher).

There is concern that discounting is impacting consumer price expectations and booking behaviours

What impact do you think discounting is having on the market? — % of respondents (multiple choice)

Consumers

Consumers expect lower prices

48%

Consumers are booking later to pick up a discount

48%

Consumers are booking direct vs via travel agents expecting a discount

Companies

Operators are setting prices lower to secure earlier bookings and avoid discounting

19%

Operators are reducing capacity or not growing it as much

10%

None of these

Source: Strategy& and TTG operator survey

Pricing and margin expectations

So what does this all mean for pricing and margins this year? Most companies are observing higher pricing this year – so cost inflation is not being fully offset by any discounting. Overall, businesses are expecting margins to be down this year – a marked change on the last survey in 2025, which showed more positivity on margin outlook.

Operating cost inflation is an issue being faced by many companies. For most (57% - multiple choice), they are passing some of that on to customers in higher pricing. Almost 30% of respondents say customers are accepting of some price increases given costs are going up but cannot, or will not, accept it all being passed on. Pulling all this together into expectations on performance in 2026, around 60% of companies are expecting revenues up this year, and around 30% down – with an overall expectation of revenues up about 2% vs 2025.

Cost inflation is a challenge, with companies passing some but not all on to customers in higher pricing

Which of the following pricing related points do you agree with? — % of respondents (multiple choice)

Companies

Costs are increasing and we will pass some on to customers in higher pricing

57%

Costs are increasing and we will pass that all on to customers in higher pricing

17%

We will discount more to encourage bookings

17%

Customers

Customers are accepting of some price increases but not enough to pass cost inflation through

29%

Customers are trading down to offset cost increases

29%

Customers are accepting of price increases as a necessary result of cost inflation

17%

Passing through cost inflation is putting customers off travelling

12%

Source: Strategy& and TTG operator survey

Revenues and profits are expected to be up overall, but profit expectations in particular are varied

What are your expectations for revenue and profits in 2026 vs 2025? — % of respondents

Significantly lower

Slightly lower

In line

Slightly higher

Significantly higher

31%

26%

14%

12%

17%

Revenue

Net higher: 23%, avg growth of c.2%

12%

31%

21%

19%

17%

Profit

Net higher: 7%

Significantly lower

Slightly lower

In line

Slightly higher

Significantly higher

Source: Strategy& and TTG operator survey

Travel bosses' priorities

Business priorities for this year include driving growth and cost management (36% are mulling staff headcounts), as well as investing to support efficiencies, with 62% of businesses investing in AI.

Business priorities for this year include driving growth and cost management, as well as investing to support efficiencies

Which of these are your top business priorities for 2026? — % of respondents (top 3 selected)

Ppt change
since 2025

Growing market share

64%

+3%

Financial / cost management

50%

+21%

Improving customer satisfaction

38%

+10%

Expanding into new products / markets

33%

-5%

Developing AI capabilities

29%

-4%

Improving tech / systems

26%

-15%

Improving data capture and usage

21%

-10%

Staff wellbeing

21%

+3%

Acquisitions

n/a

Sustainability / ESG

-8%

Expanding my team

Source: Strategy& and TTG operator survey

Consumer Sentiment

Methodology: A nationally representative survey by PwC of 2,000 consumers in April 2026 on how they feel about personal finance and spending, including travel spend intentions.

Overview

Consumer outlook is resilient but price sensitivity remains high this spring. Most (70%) consumers surveyed feel their finances are either healthy or “okay” at present, which is down slightly compared with this time last year – particularly among the mid-age and mid-income groups. Those feeling the pinch account for 20% of respondents, while less than 10% are struggling. Finances appear robust for most high-income consumers and the 65+ age group.

Most consumers feel okay about their finances, particularly higher income and older groups

“How would you describe your financial situation at the moment?” — % respondents, Apr-26

Healthy

Tight

Struggling

In trouble

All

Age

Sociodemographic group

30%

40%

21%

All

19%

47%

23%

18-24

27%

41%

20%

25-34

21%

43%

24%

35-44

23%

37%

24%

12%

45-54

25%

39%

26%

55-64

49%

36%

13%

65+

49%

34%

13%

47%

38%

12%

29%

41%

21%

42%

24%

16%

43%

26%

11%

13%

39%

29%

13%

69%
% OK/Healthy
(4ppt)
vs 2025

65%
% OK/Healthy
+2ppt
vs 2025

68%
% OK/Healthy
(9ppt)
vs 2025

64%
% OK/Healthy
(2ppt)
vs 2025

59%
% OK/Healthy
(7ppt)
vs 2025

64%
% OK/Healthy
(6ppt)
vs 2025

85%
% OK/Healthy
+1ppt
vs 2025

84%
% OK/Healthy
(3ppt)
vs 2025

84%
% OK/Healthy
+4ppt
vs 2025

69%
% OK/Healthy
(5ppt)
vs 2025

63%
% OK/Healthy
(10ppt)
vs 2025

59%
% OK/Healthy
(12ppt)
vs 2025

52%
% OK/Healthy
+4ppt
vs 2025

Source: PwC Consumer Sentiment Survey | Strategy&

Concerns around household finances

Sentiment on the outlook for household finances has fallen since January, however (see graph below), with many feeling that on balance they will be worse off this year; unsurprisingly confidence has fallen since the Middle East conflict began. Confidence is still in a relatively robust position versus the long-term average, however.

Consumer sentiment in the outlook for household finances has fallen since January…

UK consumer sentiment in outlook for household finances — Balance of opinion, 2008–2026

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Notes: 1) People asked if they will be better or worse off in the next 12 months; Balance of opinion is % of people saying more minus % of people saying less

Source: PwC Consumer Sentiment Surveys | Strategy&

Consumers' economic fears

As widely reported by TTG, consumers remain concerned about a number of factors. They are increasingly worried about the rising "cost of everyday things" such as food and transport (89% versus 84% last year), as well as the UK economy (89% versus 87%), mortgage repayments (44% versus 39%) and other issues.

…with people concerned about several macro factors including inflation, the economy and global events

“Looking ahead at the next 12 months, how concerned, if at all, are you about each of the following things?” — % respondents, Apr-26

Mar-26

Mar-25

The rising cost of everyday things
(e.g. food, transport)

89%

Mar-26

84%

Mar-25

The UK economy

89%

Mar-26

87%

Mar-25

Global events

87%

Mar-26

83%

Mar-25

Household earnings
(e.g. from pay, pension)

63%

Mar-26

62%

Mar-25

Mortgage repayments or rent going up

44%

Mar-26

39%

Mar-25

Job security or job prospects

40%

Mar-26

37%

Mar-25

Source: PwC Consumer Sentiment Survey | Strategy&

Spend on holidays

Asked which factors might cause them to spend less money on holidays in 2026 compared with 2025, respondents cite pressure on household finances and the “high cost of holidays” as particularly worrisome – although the latter is no greater than last year’s figure (41%).

Pressure on household finances and high travel costs are causing some people to spend less on travel this year

Which of the following factors, if any, might cause you to spend less money on holidays in 2026 compared with 2025? — % of respondents (multiple choice)

Household
finances

High costs of everyday products (e.g. food, fuel)

44%

High costs of utilities (e.g. energy, water)

37%

Rising taxes

20%

High interest rates

14%

Concern over losing my job

11%

Holiday
cost

High costs of holidays (e.g. travel, accommodation)

41%

The weakness of the pound

Travel
behaviour

I travelled more than normal last year to treat myself

15%

I travelled more than normal last year as I had savings I could spend

12%

Source: Strategy& Consumer Survey (Apr 2026)

Holiday intent in 2026

Encouragingly, around 70% of people say they will spend the same or more on holidays this year (around a third expect to spend more), with a net spend intention of +17%. Compared with this time last year, slightly fewer respondents say they will spend more, and a few more say they will spend less. There continues to be polarisation in booking timing, with lates likely to be important again this year. Almost 20% of consumers surveyed say they have not decided whether they will go on holiday this summer, while 30% have already booked for summer (as of April when the survey took place).

Asked why they might be booking late, 25% of respondents say they are waiting for a last minute deal, 23% are waiting to see whether prices come down, 19% claim they are waiting to see what happens with the Middle East conflict, and 23% say they will save up.

Around 70% of people say they will spend the same or more on holidays this year, with a net spend intention of +17%

Will you spend more or less on holidays in 2026 compared with 2025? — % of respondents

11%

23%

35%

13%

Much more

A bit more

About the same

A bit less

Much less

Not sure yet

11%

Much more

23%

A bit more

35%

About the same

A bit less

Much less

13%

Not sure yet

Note: Thinking about your total spending on holidays (domestic and international), how much do you expect to spend in 2026 compared to 2025? This would include any costs associated with the holiday, such as tickets and accommodation

Source: Strategy& Consumer Survey (Apr 2026)

Footnote: This research was produced by PwC and TTG Media to coincide with the TTG Media Agenda 2026 June event: What's next after a turbulent start?, hosted in association with PwC. This summary was compiled by Jennifer Morris.

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