The group posted earnings (underlying ebit) of €235 million (£201 million) on Wednesday (12 August) during the three months to the end of June, down by more than a quarter (-27%) from €321 million (£274 million) a year earlier.

Earnings for the first nine months of the year, meanwhile, stood at €123 million (£105 million) – down by 25% from the €165 million (£141 million) it took during the same period last year.

This accounts for more than €80 million (£68 million) in "negative impacts"; these include a €20 million (£17 million) cost owing to the war in Iran, which saw two Tui Cruises ships stranded in the Gulf region, and the effects of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica, which ran to €6 million (£5 million).

Tui said without these effects, it would have exceeded last year's results at the same stage "significantly".

The group said its third quarter outlook, covering the three months to the end of June, was characterised by "a challenging market environment" and "ongoing geopolitical uncertainties".

Demand defying headwinds

Chief Executive Sebastian Ebel said the combined effect of wars and geopolitical tensions, consumer caution, economic weakness and rising inflation in Europe was combining to reshape traditional booking timelines.

"Travel remains highly relevant to people’s lives, but the timing of travel decision has shifted," he said. "All these factors have influenced consumer sentiment and the timing of purchasing decisions."

However, he stressed: "Tui's figures clearly show demand persists even during periods of geopolitical crisis – though it is becoming more short-term in nature. The last five weeks in particular show booking behaviour is picking up again.

"People are travelling, but are currently making their decisions at shorter notice."

Eastern Med rebounding

Tui recorded just shy of 10 million customers (9.9 million) during Q3, down by 3% year-on-year. Earnings for its Northern region (UK, Ireland and the Nordics) during the period came in at €10 million (£8.5 million), down from €45 million (£38 million) last year.

In its broader Markets + Airline business area, Tui said demand had weakened owing to geopolitical developments and increased price pressure from higher fuel costs and additional capacity in the market.

Hotel occupancy fell by five percentage points (ppts) to 77% during Q3, which Tui put down to reduced demand in the eastern Med, Mexico and Caribbean, as well as "the ramp-up phase of new hotels".

However, looking ahead, Tui said occupancy has improved since its half-year report – "a sign that demand in the eastern Med is returning to normal" – with the average rate currently up by 4%.

Available passenger days across Tui's cruise operation is up by 12% after its 19th ship entered the fleet. Tui said despite increased capacity, "occupancy remains consistently high" with its average daily rate up by 2%.

Sales via its app increased by 20% during Q3, now capturing 13% of all Tui sales, while average load factor ran to 91%, down from 94% during the same quarter last year.

'No ordinary year'

Booked revenue currently stands at -6%, reflecting "increased consumer caution" and "the ongoing trend towards later bookings". However, this is nonetheless a one percentage point increase from its most recent financial update issued on 13 May.

In addition, Tui said there had been a significant increase (+7%) in booked revenue during the past four weeks, "indicating a recovery in demand" – especially for the eastern Med.

Ebel added: "2026 is no ordinary year. Tui has held its own well in a difficult global environment. Our business model is proving to be resilient."

Tui said, assuming there is no "significant escalation" in geopolitical tensions and fuel supplies remain assured, it expects its full-year earnings to be in the range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion (£940 million to £1.2 billion).