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One sentence from an agent summed up the trade’s hope that travel may finally have turned a corner after the government confirmed the end of testing for fully vaccinated holidaymakers.
“We have reached the stage now where new enquiries outweigh cancellations and amendments, which is very, very positive,” said Mark White, managing director of Ocky White Travel.
After 22 months of Covid hardship, his optimism about the coming months seems to be shared by operators, particularly for summer. Tui Group is in a closed period, so cannot legally detail its plans, but UK and Ireland managing director Andrew Flintham told TTG the removal of testing was “a huge leap forward in getting travel back to normal”.
“We now expect summer 2022 bookings to be back to pre-pandemic levels,” he said. Flintham added there had been an increase in bookings, while customer confidence was growing “every day”. “Going abroad will finally start to feel more normal again.”
Research conducted in early January by PwC for TTG found 25% of operators expected 2019 booking levels in the next three to six months. Another 18% said they had already reached this level, but 29% said it would take 12-18 months.
You can watch TTG’s Agenda 2022 seminar from 2pm on Tuesday (1 February) at flymy.co.uk/agenda2022. The event will be available on-demand to TTG+ members after that.
This bullishness is confirmed by data from Cirium, which shows Tui has around 17% more flights scheduled this summer than it did in 2019. Jet2.com has 13% more and easyJet 1%, although British Airways is down 9%.
Things are not quite back to 2019 levels yet, though, as Cirium shows total flights scheduled to depart between April and October 2022 are down 14% on summer 2019. This equates to around 100,000 fewer flights. However, summer 2022 will be without the seats provided by Thomas Cook, which collapsed in September 2019.
Rachel Humphries, Cirium communications director, cautioned: “At this stage of the year, amid recovery, airlines may be scheduling flights conservatively. Airline planning is becoming much more dynamic following the impact of Covid-19.”
Tui has “around 60” aircraft in its UK fleet, and where it sends them will determine where millions go on holiday, including those travelling with other operators buying seats on its flights. The same is true for Jet2.com, which operated 100 aircraft in summer 2019. A Jet2 spokesperson said: “We actually have more capacity on sale for summer 2022 than we did for summer 2019.”
Chris Wright, Sunvil managing director, said there were issues with some Greek islands where limited flying means high prices. However, he added: “I feel more flights will be put on. Other flight prices are at the low end; it’s a real mixed bag.”
Wright said the market was “all fairly positive at the moment”, but added other countries had beaten Brits to accommodation contracts in some destinations. “In the main, availability is good, but some of the larger hotels are blocking dates because they are full... that will get worse as we go through the year.”
In long-haul, Premier Holidays bookings have increased 37% since the testing announcement on 24 January. Sales and marketing director Debbie Goffin said: “Summer departures are looking particularly strong for Indian Ocean and Middle East, up 59% versus 2019. The US and Canada are on par with 2019.”
Goffin added flight prices were increasing when heading east. “Carriers are going for yield over volume and don’t have the capacity they had pre-pandemic. However, we are negotiating some great deals on the ground, so overall holiday prices are not being affected.”
Niche operators are also seeing an upturn. Philip Breckner, Discover Egypt director, said sales for September and October were “much better” than in 2018/19, but added: “Hotel and [Nile] cruise boat capacity is an issue. While the UK has been restricted, other markets have been strong, particularly the US – the cruise ships have been 50% US guests.”
Breckner said trade bookings had risen from 60% to 80%-plus. “I think the message of buying an Atol package from a bonded agent is getting through.”
The testing announcement came just in time for ski operators to rescue February half-term. “No one is asking about Covid, they’re checking their T&Cs, but nothing like what we’ve seen recently,” said Oxford Ski chief executive Rupert Longsdon.
He added Oxford Ski was taking bookings two weeks ahead of February half-term. “It’s definitely a case of ‘right, let’s go’,” he said, but stressed there was still availability.
The good news for winter sports fans is that prices have dropped year-on-year in 19 of 28 ski resorts surveyed by Post Office Travel Money. However, that may be offset by other considerations.
Diane Palumbo, Skiworld sales and marketing director said bookings were “rocketing”, but added: “Flying programmes by all airlines have been reduced. People are shocked by how much flights are. We’re already having to turn people away.
“Where accommodation is concerned, we’ve got this concentration of two seasons into one for the whole of Europe, so we are going to our normal bed banks and suppliers asking for another 50 beds. But the opposite is happening, we’re having allocations taken away from us. That means the beds left for the season are at even more of a premium.”
What a rollercoaster month that was (January). Travel took a pummelling over Christmas and new year thanks to the government’s knee-jerk reaction to the emergence of the Omicron variant of Covid-19. But credit where credit is due, the emergency measures were rolled back relatively swiftly – so quickly and to such an extent that several agencies have reported January sales. Agents are finally unlocking the pent-up demand we've long known is out there, and as Not Just Travel co-founder Steve Witt put it: “The dam has finally burst for the travel industry”.
