But as agents gear up for peaks with rising demand in mind, one potential issue – apart from a Covid resurgence, such as we have seen with the Omicron variant – is a supply squeeze, with fewer flights and accommodation options available.

In theory, it’s a real threat. Firstly, some capacity will be taken up by rebookings pushed over to 2022, some from 2020.

Next there is the reluctance of key airlines to fully restore fleets until they can fill seats, with Iata saying that will not happen until 2023. Fuel price rises will also impact later next year once hedging contracts begin to expire, with oil currently $80 a barrel – double what it was a year ago.

It could be a chicken and egg situation; if airlines are reluctant to reinstate flights, capacity is squeezed and prices go up. Meanwhile, consumers who would have travelled had there been adequate capacity and normal pricing won’t, resulting in perverse economics where diminished supply creates diminished demand.

Then there is accommodation; in some destinations, other nations’ operators have beaten the UK’s in securing rooms because their citizens were able to travel earlier, and looked a better prospect to hoteliers. Accommodation owners learnt during the pandemic to hedge their bets and not rely just on one or two key markets.

So, what’s the real picture? And is it as bad as it’s being made out by some? Chris Wright, Sunvil managing director, said: “At the moment, we’re OK, but with the volume of bookings coming in, I think there will be a squeeze on capacity and a point where all the routes we use to source accommodation will run out.

“Suppliers are selling to other European countries and are less reliant on the UK market. As we get closer to summer, demand will continue and supply may not be there for lates. Book early is the message.”

Wright said accommodation owners have learned to use channels like booking.com to tap a global market, a lesson learned by Greece last summer when Britons were not permitted to travel until late in the season. “We saw a big spike in the rest of Europe coming to Greece when the UK wasn’t able to travel. Maybe we’ll see a swing back in 2023,” he added.

Premier Holidays’ commercial director, Mark Godfrey, also sees this trend: “With some markets, notably Russians and Germans, travelling this year with minimal restrictions, they have had the confidence to commit to travel in 2022 ahead of the British. Our recovery and confidence has trailed behind as a result of the restrictions we’ve faced.”

This has already led to reduced availability in some destinations, said Godfrey. “We are seeing the effect of this in the Maldives, Dubai and game lodges in South Africa particularly. We are encouraging agents and customers to book early.”

‘Odd gaps’

Wright confirmed flight prices were inflated, driven by fuel cost rises and deferred bookings. However, he revealed Jet2.com and easyJet had eased the situation, particularly in Greece. “There’s a lot of capacity coming back into the market,” he said.

There is evidence of a flight supply squeeze, though, to some destinations; summer schedules in early November showed some high summer peak fares, with many Mediterranean hotspots well over the £250 return mark. Airlines are understandably the most cautious of suppliers.

“Prices are definitely steeper at the moment,” said Advantage Travel Partnership leisure director Kelly Cookes, adding this was affecting dynamic packaging. “Members are moving away because the air prices are high. They can’t beat the package price; plus, they’d rather put it under someone else’s Atol.”

Cookes acknowledged a general capacity shortage “at the moment”, but added: “A lot of suppliers and airlines are being cautious, but over the past three weeks, people have put capacity in.”

She said demand had soared in the last “three or four weeks” adding to a large number of rebookings from 2020 and 2021. “Summer is reasonably well sold because suppliers have taken out risk. It’s going to be more of a concern than it has been.”

Cookes said there were “odd gaps in odd periods”. Villas and self-contained accommodation were popular, as were the smaller islands in the Maldives. “Demand will outstrip supply because of social distancing,” she said.

However, she added there was not an overall shortage. “I’m not getting repeated feedback from members. I don’t think it’s a huge concern yet, but our message is book early to secure what you really want.”

In the mainstream market, Atols are a good indication of how capacity is up or down and, so far, big operators are wary. Jet2holidays may have announced an extra 600,000 seats to Greece, but that must be put into pre- pandemic perspective.

Then, its Atol was for 4.8 million passengers. Now, that figure is 3.75 million. Similarly, Tui UK which, like Jet2, renewed its Atol in September, has shed 450,000 seats compared with 5.55 million pre-pandemic. EasyJet, meanwhile, has restored 70% of its capacity for the next three months, but said it cannot predict what will happen after this.

All three brands declined to give a market outlook to TTG. They may decide to increase their Atols, but that decision will likely wait until early next year.

Early 2022 may also see more immediate capacity concerns for some. Discover Egypt specialises in “classic Egypt”, rather than Red Sea beach. Commercial director Philip Breckner said there were potential issues in February, March and October, particularly to Luxor, which has only one non-stop UK flight a week. “We’re already quite full for that period,” he said, fresh from negotiating more seats with Egyptair.

Airlines and tour operators like to fill their seats early at top prices, with little left to sell in lates. The signs are, in what is hopefully the post-pandemic period, that risk-averse planning, rebookings and high demand might mean that becomes a reality in some areas.