One in three Brits (31%) have changed their travel plans as a direct result of the war in Iran according to tax consultancy RSM UK, while more than a quarter (27%) have opted not to take a holiday in the next 12 months – up from less than 20% prior to the war (17%).

RSM's latest consumer outlook survey of 2,000 consumers revealed the main trips to be affected are self-organised overseas trips (-8%), cruise holidays (-6%) and adventure touring trips (also down by 6%).

Among those changing their plans, this includes rescheduling, changing destination or cancelling outright, while 31% average jumps to 55% among Gen Z travellers, to 46% among millennials and to 43% among families.

Nearly two in 10 respondents have changed their travel plans, with 15% citing disruption and safety concerns and another 15% increased costs. Around 5% have pivoted to domestic breaks, which increases to 8% for families.

'Consumer confidence has been rocked'

Robyn Duffy, RSM UK's consumer markets senior analyst, said: "Rising tensions in the Middle East have forced some consumers to change or cancel travel plans this year. Initially thought to be a short-lived blip for international travel, the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased jet fuel prices amid fears of scarcity, pushing up airfares and squeezing demand for international travel.

"There is no doubt consumer confidence has been rocked and that’s directly impacting travel plans for 2026. As a result, many consumers are opting for late bookings, deferring holidays altogether or opting for simpler, lower‑risk options closer to home.”

Chris Tate, RSM UK partner and head of hotels, added: "Staycations are seeing a slight uptick in interest, particularly from families looking for certainty and value. However, with costs still elevated across the sector, any uplift in staycations is unlikely to fully offset the broader slowdown in travel confidence."

'Open and productive dialogue with govt'

Over the weekend, the government announced plans to allow airlines to consolidate their schedules to save fuel in response to the continued closure of the Strait of Hurmuz, one of the main routes for global oil exports.

Abta has urged the government to take a more holistic approach. "It is right for policymakers to take steps that enable the aviation sector to plan and to provide additional certainty, but the government’s consultation must consider all parts of the travel sector – including travel agents and tour operators. The Middle East conflict affects all of the industry.

“At times like these, it’s important the industry has an open dialogue with government about what is happening right now, potential challenges in the future should the situation change, and measures of support that may be needed."

Abta has launched a survey seeking members' views on the joint impact of the rollout of the EU Entry-Exit System (EES) and the conflict in the Middle East on bookings for the summer and consumer behaviour, as well as operational concerns and overall trading confidence. Members have until Friday 15 May to respond.

The association said the feedback would help it build an argument to take back to ministers, including on the government's proposals to ease things for airlines.

Luke Petherbridge, Abta's director of public affairs, said: "Abta members’ views on how the conflict, as well as the introduction of EES, is impacting on their businesses are essential to help us have a successful and productive dialogue with government and decision makers in Brussels, as well as destinations.

"We regularly meet with government and colleagues in the aviation sector to ensure they understand how any impacts of the ongoing Middle East conflict and EES would be felt by our members.

"I would encourage Abta and other Future Travel coalition members to take the time to fill in the survey before the 15 May deadline to ensure government is fully aware of your concerns and experiences.”