Freak “Black Swan” events which “turn the impossible into the possible” may also cause problems, according to senior currency correspondent at Global Reach, Adam Cox.
Speaking at the Adventure Travel Conference, Cox advised delegates to build their own foreign currency strategy as they move further into 2017.
Among potential financial pitfalls which Cox said market analysts were monitoring closely were elections in France, Germany and Italy, believing the outcomes of the votes could have a “massive effect” on the value of the euro. France will head to the polls in May, followed by Germany in September and Italy is expected to hold an election by March 2018.
“Previously elections didn’t have that much of an impact on the currency markets, but since Brexit and Trump they will come to dominate how they react moving forward,” said Cox.
“In travel, margins are really important. We don’t have a crystal ball, and the idea is to build a strategy that suits your needs.”
Closer to home, Cox said financiers had reacted positively to Theresa May outlining the government’s Brexit plan last week, which included the desire to move Britain out of the European single market and a timeline for triggering Article 50.