JLS Consulting’s John Strickland told Abta’s Aviation Forum on Monday (22 April) he was seeing “quite stunning levels of pricing” in the market.
“In my whole career, I have never seen airlines flying really, really, full flights and getting high prices as well. We are getting the best of both, which brings challenges in terms of affordability for consumers.”
Strickland said many airlines had sought to return to profit in 2023 after the “gruesome” Covid years and had reaped the rewards of pent-up demand combined with a lack of supply.
“Demand was incredibly strong and capacity tight. Profitability was astonishing,” he said, adding this had spilled over into 2024. “There are no airlines saying they have worries about the year ahead.”
Blockages in supply of new aircraft was a factor in pushing up fares, he said. “There were no deliveries during the pandemic and this is still affecting airlines this summer. It means more upward pressure on fares.”
Boeing’s difficulties with its 737 Max meant Ryanair’s initial estimate that it would be seven aircraft short was now “closer to 20”, he said, while the new version of the 777 was “five to six years late”.
Strickland said the situation was so serious Ryanair would be without any effective expansion for two years. “It’s going to be a really different dynamic in terms of the airports they negotiate with.”
In addition, problems with Pratt & Witney engines meant more than 350 aircraft must be grounded this year for up to 300 days, with Wizz Air alone saying it will affect over 40 aircraft, a quarter of its fleet. “They will get enormous compensation, but they are a growth company that cannot grow while others can.”
British Airways, he added, was not yet at 2019 capacity levels, having replaced 30 Boeing 747s with smaller jets. It and others were benefiting from the boom in premium leisure travel filling seats business travellers had previously bought.
“It depends on baby boomers that have health, money and time. I thought it was a flash in the pan, but it’s become so pervasive,” he said.
One downside was “massively increased flying times” and fuel costs on routes avoiding Ukraine and the Middle East. However, Strickland said: “Everybody is talking a positive story for 2023/24.
