Redefined boundaries

Like most of the country, those in attendance were shocked by the referendum result. They have since been concerned by the huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the issue, with no one really clear as to what leaving the EU will mean. It could also potentially be several years until the UK fully extricates itself.

Brian Young, managing director of G Adventures, said there was a need for politicians to come out and address the situation: “I’m not surprised that consumer confidence is down at the moment given I think it’s a shock. What hasn’t helped is definitely a lack of leadership.”

Giles Hawke, chief executive of Cosmos Tours, suggested though that “any plan anyone would have come up with would have been redundant”.

“At the moment I don’t see Brexit having an impact. But I think if we see a long term hit on exchange rates we will have a problem,” he added.

Lisa McAuley, UK commercial director at Silversea, said that while there had been no impact on bookings, there were concerns as to what the future might hold.

“We don’t know what’s going to happen, we don’t know what the fallout’s going to be. But people are nervous,” she said.

Some of those present had specific concerns. Sandals’ Thompson listed the dollar exchange rate with the pound and fuel surcharges as areas to watch.

Angela Day, chief executive of Affordable Car Hire, added: “We do a lot of business into America so we are quite concerned about what is going to happen going forward.”

However Stuart Leven, UK and Ireland managing director for Royal Caribbean International, said consumers would look to mitigate future holiday price rises because of currency fluctuation by booking early. “People are sensible, consumers aren’t daft, they understand that 20% variance in currency probably means 20% more cost at some time.”

Meanwhile Peter Healey, chief executive of Vertical Group, was one of the few travel industry leaders to publicly come out in favour of Brexit, and argued his case at a TTG debate in April. He insisted that what the UK was currently going through was simply “short-term pain”.

“We’re going to have some pain but this industry… is fabulously creative, fabulously entrepreneurial. This [Brexit] is an opportunity,” he said.

Healey also predicted “massive growth in long-haul” flying.

Derek Jones, chief executive UK of Der Touristik Group, said many people who had voted for change through Brexit were likely to be disappointed and that this could be the biggest result of the referendum.

“They believe that they voted for change but nobody politically is ready to deliver change for them.

“Most people will be looking for a change within two to three years and they won’t see one; in fact, it will probably go backwards for them.”

Richard Dixon, director of homeworking business Holidaysplease, said: “We might need to take a step back in the short term just while things settle down, and then look to push on again when the opportunities will arise.”

John Sullivan, head of commercial at Advantage, added: “While we didn’t have a plan for post-Brexit, what we did have was a short-term plan – on that Friday [when the result was announced] we had a campaign out there that was about lates.”

Further afield

Brexit wasn’t the only issue on people’s minds at the forum. Geopolitical instability in key destinations continues to affect the trade, with Tunisia still off the tourism map and political volatility and security concerns continuing to plague Egypt and Turkey.

The debate was held prior to the latest developments in Turkey, which saw an attempted coup against its president.

“It’s in all of our interests for places like Turkey and Tunisia to do well,” said Thomas Cook’s Gardner, “not just from a local perspective for their own economies but also because they have immeasurable price points for consumers. They have some of the most fantastic value in Europe and north Africa, and it’s just not comparable with other destinations.”

Meanwhile Gary Anslow, Monarch’s sales director, raised the issue of Foreign Office advice.

“This year I’m going to Portugal with my family. It’s an informed decision, and I wouldn’t want to stop someone else travelling to Tunisia or Turkey if it was their choice,” he said.

Holidaysplease’s Dixon, said that the problems in destinations, meant staff had to be clued up.

“They need a clear understanding of what the situation is,” he said.

This wasn’t just the case for terrorism but also for issues such as the spread of the Zika virus in Latin America, he added.

Comment: Paul Broughton: 'There are opportunities'

This was the third TTG Leaders Forum that Travelport has sponsored and the second that I’ve personally been involved with. Each time this group has convened, it’s been on the back of high-profile, global events. Whether it’s the recent, dreadful terrorist attacks or geopolitical events such as Brexit, it’s clear that there are a constant stream of issues that have the potential to significantly impact our industry.

However, I left the debate feeling hugely positive about the level of resilience our colleagues around the table, representing all sorts of different travel businesses, continue to show on a day-to-day basis. It’s sometimes easy to only see doom and gloom when you flick through the press, but the message that came out is that even in uncertain times there are opportunities.

We work in a hugely entrepreneurial, energetic and creative industry, and great companies will always find a way to provide inspirational choices for their customers.

At Travelport we want to enable our customers to deliver unique products and services that push the boundaries, allowing them to evolve and grow their businesses.

Paul Broughton is managing director UK and Ireland, Travelport

Attendees

• Gary Anslow, sales director, Monarch Group
• Angela Day, chief executive, Affordable Car Hire
• Richard Dixon, managing director, Holidaysplease
• Phil Gardner, head of merchandising, Thomas Cook
• Giles Hawke, chief executive, Cosmos Tours
• Peter Healey, chief executive, Vertical Group
• Derek Jones, chief executive UK, Der Touristik Group
• Stuart Leven, UK managing director, Royal Caribbean
• Lisa McAuley, UK commercial director, Silversea
• Lynn Narraway, UK managing director Holland America Line/Seabourn
• John Sullivan, commercial director, Advantage Travel Partnership
• Karl Thompson, UK managing director, Sandals
• Brian Young, UK managing director, G Adventures
• Daniel Pearce, managing director, TTG Media
• Patrick Whyte, deputy news editor, TTG Media