GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer, first conducted in 1974, is a poll of more than 2,000 people that uses a core index, which measured +7 in June 2015. This fell to -1 just before the referendum, but plummeted to -9 after, the lowest score since 1994. Worryingly, the view of the general economic outlook, at +4 in June 2015, slipped to -14 before the vote and fell to -29 after.
GfK’s head of market dynamics Joe Staton said: “Our analysis suggests that in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, sectors like travel, fashion and lifestyle, home, living, DIY and grocery are particularly vulnerable to consumers cutting back their discretionary spending.”
GfK found that referendum voting patterns affected confidence, with leavers more optimistic at -5 and remainers at -13. There were also distinct regional differences, with confidence falling 19 percentage points in the North, 11 points in Scotland but only two points in the south, including London.
From an income perspective, the biggest drop in confidence came from households with incomes of £25,000 to £49,999, which will make up the majority of the package market.
However, Andy Cooper of Owens Cooper Consulting, warned that the timing of the poll, immediately after the vote, could have had a distorting effect: “People do these surveys quickly after the event when the instant reaction is panic and shock. I suspect there will be a different response in two weeks’ time,” he said.
Warning over UK consumer confidence
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