They fear uncertainty around travel to the Middle East could push customers towards traditional European beach resorts, potentially driving up prices during the peak summer season as demand builds.

On Thursday (12 March) Jet2 chief executive Steve Heapy warned agents at the operator's annual conference in Cadiz, Spain, that "greedy" resorts in the western Mediterranean could potentially try and profit from the Iran war by increasing prices. 

Phil Nuttall, chief executive of Blackpool-based Travel Village Group, agreed with Heapy. "You hope hoteliers do the right thing by their regular customers, but at the end of the day, they also have a right to do what they want commercially," said Nuttall. 

Nuttall added that while it was still too early to assess the full impact, price rises could create challenges for families. 

"A lot of families can’t book early and have to book late," he said. "We don’t want price hikes to impact people – it’s bad enough with the government that we’ve got. We don’t need it coming from resorts in the western Med as well."

However, Nuttall stressed: "It's a waiting game at the moment but I believe people will always want to travel and always want a holiday." 

'Difficult to match Dubai's service levels'

Club Voyages consultant Samantha Prendeville said she had already seen early signs of hesitation among customers, although none of them had been directly affected by the crisis.

"People are getting a little bit twitchy," she said. "I do wonder if they're thinking about the price of holidays going up – or the cost of aviation fuel."

She added the uncertainty around the Middle East was already impacting sales. "I’m having the quietest March I’ve ever had," she said. "I think people are just going to see how it plays out."

Prendeville also warned switch-selling Dubai holidays with European alternatives could prove tricky for agents, particularly during school holidays.

"Dubai is quite a good value family destination usually," she said. "When you try to move customers to the Spanish mainland instead, it can be difficult to match the same level of service and value. I think agents will have to manage expectations going forward."

Availability for other destinations 'tight'

Meanwhile, Savile Row Travel director Matt Callaway said the immediate impact had been logistical, with teams working to reroute clients and reorganise travel plans.

"We’ve been very much in operations mode," he said. "We’re continuing to get clients out of the Middle East and rejig people who are due to travel within the region or further afield."

However, he added agents were also having conversations with customers about switching destinations where concerns about the region remained.

"There are a lot of conversations about offering alternatives – trying to get clients to places like the Caribbean or the Canaries instead," he said. "People have been quite open to that, but you’re coming into it quite late in the day so you’re often paying a premium – and availability is tight."

Many holidays had been booked months in advance, he added, meaning travellers looking to change plans just weeks before departure were already at a disadvantage.

"These trips are often planned six months to a year ahead," he said. "If you’re suddenly looking at different long-haul destinations three or four weeks before travel, you’re likely to be disappointed."

Cyprus and Turkey concerns

For Tiger Eye Travel's Jenny Stephens, the impact has so far been limited to a single client stranded in New Zealand. However, she warned the war could have a broader affect on travel patterns.

"I think the summer holidays is going to get really busy in some of the beach resorts in Spain, France and Italy," she said, adding: "People are a little bit worried about destinations such as Cyprus and Turkey."

Stephens added that concerns about potential disruption were also influencing travellers’ decisions.

"I think people are worried about being stuck somewhere, more than anything," she said. "For anybody who has not already booked, they’re probably watching and waiting."

This is backed up by recent booking data from The Advantage Travel Partnership, which shows mainland Spain, the Canary Islands, France and Italy are performing strongly while Cyprus, Egypt and Turkey experience a "slight slowdown".

The consortium said it remained difficult to predict how the situation would affect Easter bookings overall but urged travellers to book soon if they are planning to travel. It also warned capacity to destinations away from the Middle East could become limited.