The ceasefire was announced by US president Donald Trump late on Tuesday night (7 April), around 90 minutes before his deadline for Iran to strike a deal, following mediation by Pakistan.
News of the ceasefire immediately sent oil prices tumbling, falling by 15% to below US $100 a barrel, albeit far short of the approximately US $70 per barrel rate that preceded the war. European gas prices also fell by around 20% in the immediate aftermath of the two-week accord being announced.
However, analysts on Wednesday (8 April) advised against expecting oil and energy prices to normalise promptly, or to stabilise nearer pre-war levels.
Speaking to media in Singapore, Iata director general Willie Walsh cautioned it would take months for jet fuel supplies to recover, adding prices would like remain elevated owing to the impact of the war on refining in the Middle East.
New booking data from Responsible Travel, published on Wednesday (8 April), suggests nearly 60% of holiday firms offering tours globally have reported a drop in enquiries of "20% or more" since 28 February when the Iran war started.
Of the 112 travel companies that completed the Responsible Travel survey, almost 80% flagged a drop in holiday enquiries, while 56% reported there being "no sign" of improvement.
'We have to view it as a positive'
However, agents told TTG they saw the ceasefire as "a stepping stone in the right direction" with some going as far as suggesting it could lead to higher booking levels.
Premier Travel managing director Paul Waters said: "We have to view the ceasefire as a positive. It's a stepping stone in the right direction. It will certainly give more reassurance to people that have booked European destinations. We'll see a little bit of an uplift in bookings and more enquiries. There will certainly be more window shopping."
Experience It Now Travel director Richard Light agreed, saying: "We do think there will be a bookings uptick. It was really good to see the news this morning [Wednesday]. We want Iran and the US to reach a solution and for the Strait of Hormuz to remain open and, of course, for Trump to be satisfied that he has 'won'."
Cruise performing 'exceptionally well'
Light revealed 90% of Experience It Now Travel's bookings were for April, May and June with "hardly any" enquires for departures next year.
He added: "Long-haul is suffering, but cruise is going exceptionally well with ex-UK cruises and Med sailings particularly popular. We're up year-on-year for Saga, Royal Caribbean and MSC Cruises."
Booking data from online cruise retailer Iglu.com shows how enquiries have shifted away away from Asia, the Indian Ocean and the Middle East.
Comparing enquiries in the two weeks prior to 28 February with two weeks after, interest for cruises in the Arctic, Northern Europe and the Fjords, and Canada and New England surged. There were changes of 97%, 82% and 81% respectively.
In contrast, cruise enquiries for sailings in Asia dropped by 43% and for the Middle East and the Indian Ocean fell by 100%.
David Gooch, Iglu chief executive, said: "We expect even more enquiries for British Isles cruising, and cruises departing from UK ports, negating the need for a flight."
Caution urged
Travel Village Group chief executive Phil Nuttall welcomed the news of the ceasefire agreement but urged caution too. "Are we going to be able to operate flights to the Middle East in the next two weeks? No," he said, adding: "But it will help airfares and the cost of travel and the confidence in the market which is a good thing. This is more about the cost of living."
Club Voyages managing director Sam Ballard said: "While it’s a positive step for overall stability, until there is a firmer peace plan in place, we are unlikely to see a jump in bookings."
An Abta spokesperson said: “On the face of it, the ceasefire seems to be the most positive news in some time but nonetheless the geopolitical situation remains extremely uncertain. As ever, we will support Abta members through this uncertainty, keeping them fully abreast of developments relating to travel and their operations.”
Blackpool-based Travel Village Group has created a "Travel with Confidence" strategy in response to the Middle East crisis to support staff and customers. "The Travel with Confidence strategy helps us address any concerns or worries that customers may have. It's an extension of being a family business," Nuttall explained.
Prime minister Keir Starmer, who headed to the Gulf region on Wednesday, has welcomed the ceasefire agreement and will discuss diplomatic efforts to support and uphold the agreement, the BBC reports.
Starmer said development would being "a moment of relief to the region and the world". "Together with our partners, we must do all we can to support and sustain this ceasefire, turn it into a lasting agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz," said the prime minister.
