In a half-year trading update issued on Wednesday (11 May), the European travel giant said bookings across its key markets – the UK, Germany and Benelux – had been "largely unaffected" by the conflict.
However, Tui did, though, warn of several potential headwinds arising from the war, including ongoing pressures on fuel costs, the cost-of-living crisis, and the likelihood of an extended confrontation impacting consumer confidence.
"The positive booking momentum has remained largely unaffected by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine," said the airline and operator. "Tui therefore continues to expect bookings for summer 2022 to approach the level of summer 2019."
Tui said rising jet fuel costs was impacting results in its northern, western and central region segments, adding there remained a significant risk that prices would remain high going into the second half of the year.
Additionally, Tui warned that while it expected booking behaviour in its 2023 financial year to return to 2019 trends and for consumer travel behaviour not to be affected by further Covid disruption or impacts of the war, "customer bookings may deteriorate due to new pandemic or war-related travel restrictions".
Consumer confidence was one area Tui acknowledged "remained difficult to predict" owing to Russia’s invasion. "The greatest area of uncertainty will be the impact on consumer confidence, should travel restrictions be reintroduced, should there be further cost inflation volatility and/or an escalation of the war in Ukraine," said Tui.
The group, once again, declined to provide a "specific, quantified forecast" for its 2022 financial year. However, it reiterated it expected a "significant improvement" in the group’s underlying Ebit (earnings before interest and tax) compared with 2021 and to return to "significantly positive" underlying Ebit in its current financial year.
Tui also highlighted global cost-of-living pressures, such as on household energy bills, arising from the conflict. "Tui Group’s operating business recorded good demand during Q2 2022," it said. "The booking momentum in our key markets so far remained largely unaffected by Russia’s war of aggression on Ukraine.
"However, an enhanced general price increase as a possible impact of the war could affect our customers’ purchasing power and desire to travel in the medium term, thus impacting our principle risk of a reduction in customer demand."
