Along with 2010 and 2014 it means three of the hottest five years ever recorded have happened in the past five years.

And just a few days after WTM finishes, the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference convenes in Paris once again to seek global agreement on how to meet the challenge. This is the right time to assess what the travel industry is doing and what still needs to be done. The past 12 months have seen many tourism companies raise the bar considerably.

In Cape Town, airport hotel Hotel Verde became the first hotel in the world to be accredited with a double LEED platinum rating. Fairmont announced it had reduced its operational CO2 emissions by 20% below 2006 levels.

Soneva Group, one of the finalists in this year’s World Responsible Tourism Awards, announced that the 2% climate levy it imposes on all its guests had raised more than $6 million. In a world first for solar power, in August India’s Cochin International airport became the first to generate 100% of its power from solar, while returning any surplus to its state’s electricity grid. And last year Tui Travel (which has since merged with Tui AG to become the Tui Group), received a score of 100% from the Carbon Disclosure Project for its carbon reporting.

“We are committed to providing a lasting legacy of reducing our carbon emissions,” said Johan Lundgren, who was Tui Travel’s deputy chief executive at the time. “As a business, we wholeheartedly recognise our responsibility and the importance of accurate and transparent carbon reporting to all our stakeholders.” These are impressive achievements, and there are many more besides.

However, they show only a portion of the picture. For while Tui Group’s latest Sustainable Holidays report revealed it had reduced its airlines’ absolute carbon emissions by 15% in five years, the figures for the wider industry are going in the wrong direction. Global airlines are expected to emit 757 million tonnes of carbon in 2015, a 4.6% increase on last year.

The problem is this: many companies are proportionately reducing emissions from their activities, making their individual aeroplanes or hotels more efficient. But the sector as a whole is growing at a faster rate than the energy savings can make up for.

As Rebecca Hawkins, managing director of the Responsible Hospitality Partnership, explained in a seminar at WTM last year, in the 22 years since the first Rio climate conference in 1992, and despite numerous energy-saving technologies being adopted, total climate emissions from the accommodation industry rose at 3.2% a year. If the sector’s rate of growth continues at the same rate, says Hawkins, by 2035 total accommodation emissions will increase by 156%.

Where are we now?

According to UNWTO, tourism is responsible for about 5% of global CO2 emissions. Transport makes up 75% of this figure (of which aviation causes 54-75%); 20% comes from accommodation; and 3.5% from the various activities we undertake while on holiday.

To put this into perspective, consider that UNWTO celebrated World Tourism Day in September with the theme “One Billion Tourists, One Billion Opportunities”, marking the fact that in 2012 the one billionth person became an international tourist. This also means that just 14% of the world goes on holiday abroad each year, maybe for a couple of weeks or so out of 52.

Yet between us we cause 5% of the year’s total emissions in so doing. And consider that the World Economic Forum predicted in 2013 that there will be two billion tourists by 2020. What all these numbers mean is that we’ll be building more hotels and taking more flights. So while aviation currently accounts for about 3.5% of global emissions, according to the IPCC, it is also among the fastest-growing sources.

By 2020, international aviation emissions could be 70% higher than in 2005, even if fuel efficiency improves by 2% a year, according to estimates cited by the European Commission. Such predictions for the escalating impacts of an ever-growing tourism sector are repeated for the industry at large.

A pioneering paper released earlier this year by tourism and climate change scientists Stefan Gossling and Paul Peeters analysed tourism’s appetite for growth and resources. According to the authors: “From 2010–2050, tourism is anticipated to grow considerably in energy use and emissions, doubling energy use over the coming 25 years in a business-as-usual scenario.” No wonder, then, that Harold Goodwin, who organises WTM’s responsible tourism programme, told TTG:

“Travel and tourism climate change is a major issue. It is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, and flooding and drought are beginning to be felt in destinations.”

The impacts on destinations to which Goodwin refers mean that addressing the climate change challenge isn’t just a moral imperative – it’s essential for the industry’s future. Changing weather patterns won’t just mean warmer weather, but more storms. Bad weather grounds fights; 2014 saw the most flight cancellations in the US in a quarter of a century.

They also mean rising sea levels, putting the many airports built on floodplains or coastal areas in danger of being inundated.

Climatological outlook

Of course, it’s not just airports that are at risk. A study published this summer by the world’s most famous climatologist – Nasa’s former lead climate scientist, James Hansen – and 16 co-authors concluded that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica could melt up to 10 times faster than previous consensus estimates, resulting in a sea level rise of 10 feet or more starting within the next 50 years.

In the study’s likely scenario, large parts of popular destinations such as New York City, London, Rio and Sydney, along with every beach resort, would be under water.

Tourist hotspots such as the Maldives would cease to exist, and while some regions will suffer from flooding, others will be affected by drought. An increase of just a few degrees could change the Mediterranean’s climate from being its main draw to making it unbearable for much of the year. Where will all this lead? A 2012 report on global water security from the US Director of National Intelligence said that pressures on scarce water supplies will lead to an increased risk of conflict.

This will have serious implications for tourism. In August, Starwood Hotels revealed that half of its current and future properties are in areas facing critical water issues. How it – and any tourism business facing similar issues – seeks to address these challenges will define the industry’s future.