The US should be among destinations benefiting from the lifting of quarantine for fully vaccinated UK travellers returning from the US. The Foreign Office has also eased its advisory against all but essential travel to the US, while the UK has scrapped its inbound quarantine requirement for fully vaccinated US tourists.

But the US is standing firm on refusing to reopen to double-vaccinated UK travellers – or anyone else – because president Biden is yet to lift Trump’s ban, although there are understood to be talks ongoing about reopening to fully vaccinated travellers.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, meanwhile, recently upped the UK’s Covid threat level to “very high” and advised US residents and citizens against travel to the UK.

The long and short of it is that a resumption of travel between the UK and US looks to be some way away yet, despite a massive ongoing industry lobbying effort.

Understandably, there is dismay among US specialists, with normal life pretty much having resumed in the US – albeit with a recent concerning rise in cases of the Delta variant of Covid-19. “They’ve opened up entirely; I don’t know why they can’t let tourists in,” said RouteTrip USA founder Stephen Disbrowe.

Despite the 16-month hiatus, operators and agents are reporting keen interest in the US for 2022 and beyond. One of the more expensive parts of a US package, especially at the budget end, is the airfare. If normal supply and demand laws applied, there could be some cause for concern following the disappearance of at least a dozen leisure routes. But frequency cuts and, in one case, the disappearance of an entire airline from transatlantic flying, have yet to impact pricing.

America As You Like It managing director Maggie Smith said airfares “are really very affordable at the moment” but warned this may not last, and expressed her frustration at carriers. “Every time we book a flight, they change or cancel it.”

Gaps in the market

Despite all the short-notice switches, there are signs most previously served Heathrow-US destinations will be reinstated, with only British Airways so far publicly saying it will permanently suspend routes. BA has axed two US services, Charleston and Pittsburgh. United, Delta and American Airlines will reclaim their frequencies as soon as they can.

Gatwick, however, has a big hole to fill, with BA and Virgin moving US flights to Heathrow and the permanent loss of Norwegian’s long-haul services.

In its time, Norwegian broke the established carriers’ monopolies on routes such as Austin, Seattle and Denver, and brought down fares. Norwegian’s 5.20am Gatwick-New York departure was a prime example of how it enabled millions to make their first trip to the US through its low-cost formula.

There is a gap in the market here, which start-up Norse Atlantic Airways will fill this winter. It is advertising for UK staff, likely for roles at Gatwick, where it will operate former Norwegian aircraft.

Before this, JetBlue makes its UK debut, flying Heathrow-New York from 12 August. Daily services will scale back to four a week in September due to travel restrictions. JetBlue still plans to fly from Gatwick from 29 September, offering 141 seats on each flight.

One airport seeing more US capacity is Manchester, where Virgin Atlantic and Aer Lingus’s new UK subsidiary will compete. Aer Lingus was due to start non-stop New York and Orlando flights on 29 July but now plans to commence on 30 September.

Virgin currently offers New York and Boston from Manchester, but plans to add Orlando, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Atlanta, so Manchester will have an attractive offering for leisure travellers.

Airlines are waiting to ramp up transatlantic capacity. Heathrow warned in July the closure of transatlantic links was costing “at least £23 million a day”, with US passenger traffic from the airport down around 80%. In Europe, which reopened unilaterally, traffic to the US is only around 40% down.

While airlines plot their return, US specialist operators are receiving steady interest – for 2022. Gold Medal said Florida, Nevada, New York, California and Hawaii were best sellers, but added: “For the most part, our suppliers have told us they don’t expect a UK-US travel corridor until September.

“According to our sales data, travellers are resigning themselves to not getting across the pond this year. Our top-five departure months for holidays booked in the past four weeks are for travel in the first half of 2022. The good news is our average booking value is higher than it was pre-pandemic, with more customers booking four-star properties and above, and opting to extend their trips.”

America As You Like It said it had received lots of enquiries and had no issues with air capacity or accommodation. Clients were still booking, Smith said, particularly homes, RVs and self-drives, but the unpredictability was having an impact. “People are really anxious because things change so much. I just wish it would open up soon.”

Supply and demand issues

Canadian Affair’s sister brand American Affair launched in March, and commercial director Lee Rogers said while there were currently no problems with airfares, there would be a “potential demand issue” once interest returned. “The majority of bookings are for 2022. The concern is people having rates ready and giving us direction on what the increases will be.”

US hoteliers like overseas guests as they tend to stay longer than domestic ones. However, Rogers said: “Contracting rates are not being offered as far ahead as in Canada. I don’t know whether people are trying to find out how strong the domestic market will be, or how fast the international market will return.”

She predicted the pandemic would affect which destinations were popular. “National Park areas will be in high demand because people want open spaces to get away from crowds,” she said.

However, getting to National Parks may be an issue, said Disbrowe, whose business specialises in road trips across North America. He anticipates problems with car hire supply after brands sold off much of their fleets to raise capital. “Rental prices could be double what we have quoted. It’s going to be a problem, I reckon,” Disbrowe said.

He is another who wants more transparency around air fares and is frustrated at the inability to book accommodation or flights more than a year in advance. “I’d like airlines to open bookings 18 months ahead, at least until we get through this period.”

Securing rates far in advance means pricing difficulties. “We’re booking things where we can, as we anticipate prices rising. That creates a problem because we come up with a price for a holiday based on what we expect the hotel to be.”

Like others, Disbrowe said booking trends were more for next year than this and warned this could lead to issues. “We’ve had fairly decent pick-up in the past week for 2022 and 2023. I think people may have given up on this year. And there’s a chance there will be problems with supply next year because there’s also two years’ worth of rebookings.”