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Agents headed into August off the back of the biggest bookings boost since the winter as a path to a concerted resumption of international travel became clearer than at any stage of the Covid crisis, just in time for peak summer.
Industry bosses sounded caution, though, warning that even after a significant easing of travel rules – particularly around quarantine – the trade was unlikely to experience a swift return to pre-pandemic booking volumes, albeit while retaining hopes of a vital and long overdue late summer surge.
A record 87% of respondents to TTG’s latest Travel Agent Tracker survey said they took new bookings in the two weeks to 23 July, 4% ahead of the highest rate this year and up from 72% a fortnight earlier – the biggest spike since Boris Johnson’s roadmap announcement in February.
Some 94% of respondents, meanwhile, said they took new enquiries during the same period, 1% below the highest rate of the year also set in February. There was also a 44% rise in the fortnightly average number of new enquiries reported by agents, up from 16 to 23, and an increase too in the average number of new bookings reported by Tracker respondents from 11 to 13.
The uptick followed the easing of quarantine rules for fully vaccinated amber list arrivals on 19 July, although agent consortia warned consumers remained “confused” amid an ongoing “lack of clarity” around travel rules.
David Moon, head of business development at Advantage Travel Partnership, told TTG the amber list move had “increased demand” for members but bookings had “not gone through the roof”, with Spain and Greece the leading destinations.
“It conflicted with the introduction of ‘amber plus’ for France, which was shambolic in its execution and created an awful consumer message,” said Moon. “If amber plus hadn’t happened, we would have seen more consumer confidence.”
Jim Eastwood, global sales director for homeworking giant Travel Counsellors, said there had been a “good bounceback” in summer 2021 bookings in July, with sales reaching around two-thirds of 2019 levels – up from 50% in the previous four weeks. Greece was the top destination, followed by Spain and UK domestic breaks.
“I’m optimistic, as all the indicators are increasingly positive – customers are travelling and having positive experiences in-resort,” said Eastwood. “Customers crave clarity and they find it really unhelpful when the government makes changes and appears to flip-flop. We don’t want any more travel categories like amber plus.”
Gary Lewis, chief executive of The Travel Network Group (TTNG), warned some agencies could struggle to survive the next few months unless furlough was extended, as there were only “trickles” of bookings for summer 2021 – with most sales for 2022.
“They have used up money to get to this point,” he said. “When the end of September arrives, they don’t have the funds to keep businesses alive. If you can’t give clarity, demand is not going to keep the industry alive over the next six months."
Abta also stressed the industry was “not out of the woods” and again called for a “tailored package” of support including furlough extension, business rates relief and grants.
Cruise specialists, meanwhile, rejoiced at the lifting of the international ocean cruising ban on Monday (2 August), with the Foreign Office also removing its advice against cruise travel for the first time in a year.
Bob Sanguinetti, chief executive of the UK Chamber of Shipping, said it was “long overdue” and that cruise lines had gone “above and beyond what other sectors have to do” to mitigate the Covid risk.
Andy Harmer, Clia’s UK and Ireland managing director, added the successful domestic restart had “led the way” for the international resumption.
Cruise agents were also celebrating. Phil Nuttall, managing director of The Travel Village Group, said it was a “massive confidence boost for the industry”, with “a lot of customers sat on future cruise credits, waiting to use them”. But he warned customers still needed to understand “it remains a very fluid situation and that ports of call may change”.
In a further bid to reopen international travel, the UK government is continuing to lobby the Biden administration to lift the ban on British visitors after the UK allowed fully vaccinated US and EU passengers to avoid quarantine on arrival in the UK – also from Monday.
Airline capacities remain significantly down on summer 2019 figures, with Ryanair leading the way in August at 1.77 million seats, according to OAG. EasyJet is a close second with 1.68 million seats, followed by British Airways (1.1 million), Jet2.com (746,644) and Tui (529,521).
OAG analyst John Grant said: “It may be that carriers inject more capacity based on what happens in the latest round of ‘government guessing’.”
It wasn’t just the warm weather causing sleepless nights in July. There were worries about what to do when the furlough scheme ends; the resumption of business rates; and planning for bounceback loan repayments. Not to mention that every time I look at Twitter, the government might announce another addition to the already confusing traffic light system. The life of a travel agent has never been so hard.
July started well. Enquiries were picking up for winter and summer 2022 long-haul, although summer 2021 enquiries were still thin on the ground. And with more operator and government-enforced cancellations, plus clients transferring, we finished 88% down on sales against July 2019.
The introduction of “amber plus” for France knocked client confidence. Those previously considering booking were put off by the thought of last-minute changes, and as the month progressed, enquiries and bookings dried up. On some days we felt like an information service – even for people who hadn’t booked with us.
Cruise was our area of success for July. With Tilbury our closest port, the Ambassador Cruise Line launch secured us a few new bookings, as did UK “seacation” cruising, which overall seems to have been a huge success for the industry. Our river cruise bookings were also strong, with clients keen to travel on smaller ships. Flexible booking conditions and low deposits helped us secure many of these bookings.
The overriding hope is for clarity: on the traffic light system; testing; and why – despite the UK’s successful vaccination roll-out – overseas travel is more difficult than ever. A bonus would be an extension of furlough, and some targeted financial support from government.
It’s a three-dimensional jigsaw 12 months (and counting) in the making but finally the UK’s tangled web of travel rules are starting to make some semblance of sense. Reopening borders is one thing, though: it is now vital coordination on – and reciprocity of – testing rules and vaccination certification follows. But as Lee Hunt notes, like all jigsaws, there are still a few pieces that don’t seem to fit – or are missing altogether. Government must solve this puzzle properly like granny would at Christmas rather than getting the scissors out to make the pieces fit.
