Peaks

Global Travel Group managing director Andy Stark warned: “It’s possible there may be a retail shift if there is significant currency fluctuation against the euro after March 29.

“The buying power for accommodation and airline pricing could be impacted, with holidaymakers and agents taking advantage of destinations with relatively better exchange rates.”

Affordability fears are already making all-inclusives a popular choice. Abta research found 18% of travellers would choose all-inclusive this year to protect them from the uncertainty Brexit may bring.

Brexit will come as the summer season starts and Global is already seeing bookings affected, as Stark explained: “There’s no doubt there is some degree of hesitation when it comes to travel bookings in March, but nothing too significant. Whether this slight gap in demand is entirely down to Brexit is yet to be seen.”

He added, however: “We’re confident people will still be booking holidays.”

Short-haul

For short-haul, specifically, the 2019 story is likely to be one of a trend away from the western Mediterranean, with Turkey and Tunisia making a comeback.

Thomas Cook has increased flights to Tunisia from 11 to 17 a week for summer 2019 and a five-fold increase in its bookings by November shows Tunisia is on the recovery path.

Egypt’s beach tourism is still to recover, but the new Giza airport and the run-up to the 2020 launch of Cairo’s Grand Egyptian Museum will put it in the spotlight. Meanwhile this winter, Egypt’s loss remains the Canary islands’ gain, with three in particular – Tenerife, Lanzarote and Gran Canaria – making up Tui’s top five destinations.

Tui’s tip for growth next summer is Croatia, which it says is up 20%. It also sees a return to mid-haul, particularly Turkey, and adds: “Turkey is proving very popular from all UK regions for summer 2019. Bulgaria has seen growth predominantly from the south-east and Midlands, where sales from families have outpaced adults-only.”

Long-haul

In long-haul, Tui is debuting Los Cabos on Mexico’s Baja California peninsula next winter, hoping to capitalise on Cancun’s popularity with its customers, while a new Norwegian Air route from Gatwick to Rio de Janeiro will open up Brazil to more travellers from March.

Brexit could affect sterling’s value against the dollar, but one thing to boost UK-US travel this year is the array of new flights.

In April, British Airways launches routes to Charleston and Pittsburgh, while Virgin Atlantic links Manchester and Los Angeles from May and Aer Lingus heads to Dublin with a Minneapolis route from July.

Edinburgh will gain Delta’s Boston service and American Airlines’ Philadelphia flight, both summer- only, while from March 31 Norwegian replaces its Gatwick-Fort Lauderdale flight with Miami and its Oakland service with San Francisco.

Elsewhere in 2019, Japan will be on trend with the Rugby World Cup, kicking off in September, while new British Airways Osaka flights will allow open-jaw itineraries.

Also in Asia, Cambodia will mark the 40th anniversary of the fall of the Khmer Rouge regime and ups its tourism game with the new Shinta Mani Wild resort and upcoming Six Senses Krabey Island.

In the Middle East, Jordan – with its historic sites – will gain more of a profile as a beach destination in 2019 following development at Aqaba and the start of direct easyJet flights from Gatwick this winter.

Watch also for the emergence of smaller Gulf emirates such as Ras Al Khaimah and Ajman. The latter is a new Kuoni addition and both are positioning themselves as a low-key alternative to Dubai.

In Africa, Zimbabwe will see several lodge upgrades. A spate of new lodges will also boost Namibia, particularly along the Skeleton Coast.