Against a backdrop of the extraneous depressive factor of terrorism in Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey and Belgium, the company has nonetheless achieved a creditable like-for-like winter performance, with revenue of £2.6 billion comparing favourably with £2.7 billion for 2015, when Easter is taken into account, and an improved margin of 21.7% (21.3%) also an encouraging indicator.
There are further positive trends, with adjusted net debt increasing only £50 million against first-half losses of £288 million.
Investments – including a joint venture in the Chinese market – and capital expenditure have been maintained and additional bank facilities of £150 million have been negotiated, which provides headroom to accelerate the planned reductions in fixed debt instruments (bonds).
Notwithstanding short-term headwinds with rebalancing capacity away from Turkey in particular, the summer 2016 advance bookings are strong enough to support a full-year underlying earnings (ebit) forecast of between £310 million and £335 million. This has led Moody’s to improve its credit rating assessment, which suggests longer-term optimism may not be out of place.
Andrew Burnham is a partner at MHA MacIntyre Hudson
Comment: 'Longer-term optimism in Thomas Cook may not be out of place'
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