The latest quarterly report by the European Travel Commission (ETC) has found that outbound UK travel would be affected by both “economic and non-economic factors” if the current deal with the EU fails to be approved by the new UK parliament after 12 December’s general election.

ETC added that the impact of a no-deal Brexit would continue in 2021 with overseas trips by UK residents expected to be 8% lower than previously forecast.

“A no-deal Brexit is expected to have an immediate and sharp downward impact on UK outbound travel, with a decline in outbound travel in 2020. While a return to positive growth is expected in 2021, the pace of growth is well below baseline expectations,” said the ETC report.

The commission added that this projected fall in outbound holidays by UK consumers would not be “experienced uniformly” across Europe, with Spain set to be worst affected with an estimated 1.3 million fewer UK tourists visiting the country in 2021.

While Ireland would be hardest hit on a percentage basis with a forecast 5% fall in UK visitors during 2021.

The report also found that Europe has been continuing to see growth in tourist arrivals in 2019 with a rise of 3.4% year-on-year, although the pace of increase has slowed compared with previous years.

Turkey has been one of the star performers this year with international arrivals rising by 14.7% during the first eight months of the year. The European destination with the highest rise in arrivals was Montenegro with an 18% year-on-year increase.

But Iceland has been hit by a 14.3% decline in international visitors so far in 2019, which ETC said was down to a strong local currency and the collapse of Wow Air.

Eduardo Santander, ETC’s executive director said: “Travel demand in Europe is in a good place, with steady increases in tourism numbers across the board.

“Despite very real challenges, such as the looming threat of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, and the collapse of several airlines, European destinations continue to post healthy rates of arrivals, which of course is to be welcomed.

“Meanwhile, European tourism needs to focus on developing long-term sustainable management solutions to enable tourism to flourish, rather than just merely grow.”