This was the stark warning from Martin Alcock, director of Travel Trade Consultancy, delivering a state of the industry address during TTG’s inaugural Keep Your Business Alive seminar.
If the government repeatedly lifts and reimposes social distancing rules in a bid to curb a second or third wave of Covid-19 infections, the travel industry could be ill-prepared to cope with the surge in demand during those windows of opportunity, he warned.
“[If] everybody piles down to Cornwall [when this is over], which is gridlocked every summer – will it be able to cope?,” he said. “These sorts of issues are going to come to the fore.”
Clients may also be unwilling to book in advance if the future is uncertain, he added, while prices may surge.
“[If] you get these windows of availability before [shorter] lockdowns, what you’re going to do is drive people into narrower and narrower windows of opportunity, and that’s straight away going to increase prices.”
Alcock gave the example of a chain of holiday properties, which normally enjoys bookings three months in advance potentially being forced to grapple with reservations just two weeks ahead.
However, he was sure there would be plenty of clients to be won from what he described as the “p***ed-off customer carousel”.
He explained: “Anecdotally, around 75% of customers will accept a credit note and will rebook for a future date, but there are around 25% who are so p***ed off that they will never book with that tour operator again.
“So they go down the road to operator two, who welcomes them with open arms – ‘They did what? No refund? Outrageous!’
“Meanwhile, 25% of operator two’s clients who are p***ed off will go down the road to operator number three, and so on.”
He added company failures would likely mean less competition when the crisis ends, and stressed the desire for a holiday was unlikely to disappear.
“After lockdown, everybody is going to need a break. That break will come in many shapes and sizes and at different times, but the demand will be there.”
