In a worst-case scenario, where quarantine and travel restrictions aren’t restricted this summer, new WTTC modelling suggests 2.9 million jobs could be under threat, up from a previous WTTC estimate of 1.2 million, while the measures could wipe $186 billion off the sector’s annual contribution to UK GDP – which would be down a massive 73% on 2019.
Additionally, the WTTC believes international arrivals would fall 73%, and domestic 71%.
"Our new modelling reveals the depth of the long-term crisis facing the UK travel and tourism industry if travel restrictions, such as the 14-day quarantine measures introduced by government this week and the Foreign Office’s travel advisory [against all non-essential travel worldwide, continue for some time," said WTTC president and chief executive Gloria Guevara.
“The sector’s recovery risks being undermined by heavy-handed restrictions just as it emerges from one of the most punishing periods in its history – and it’s not just airlines that will bear the cost, but the entire travel eco-system.
“Hotels, destinations and travel agents will all suffer from the economic domino effect of prolonged restrictions on movement, plunging millions of travel businesses and their employees into financial ruin.”
The WTTC’s baseline scenario, where the UK’s current restrictions are eased from July for short-haul and regional travel, August for mid-haul, and September for long-haul, would risk 1.9 million jobs and $126 billion being lost; international arrivals would fall 57% and domestic 45%.
In its best-case scenario, with current restrictions eased in June for short-haul and regional travel, July for mid-haul, and August for long-haul, 1.6 million jobs and $106 billion GDP would be at risk.
The council has drawn up a four-point plan to achieve its best-case scenario.
- Immediate removal and replacement of the UK’s 14-day quarantine measures, with "air corridors" to countries with similar circumstances to stimulate the travel and tourism sector and the wider UK economy, as well as the removal of travel advisories and bans on non-essential international travel, which prevent insurance protection cover for travellers;
- The adoption of global health and safety protocols, such as the "Safe Travels" initiative recently launched by WTTC, to provide assurance to travellers that it is safe to travel again;
- The implementation of a rapid test and trace strategy to help contain the spread of the virus, while still allowing people to travel responsibly at home and abroad;
- And a greater and sustained collaboration between the public and private sectors to ensure a standardised, global approach to the crisis.
Guevara added: “We’re calling on the government to remove its quarantine policy as soon as possible to minimise the impact to its economy, which is currently putting the UK at a distinct competitive disadvantage.
“Instead, we recommend the opening of ‘travel corridors’ to countries which have controlled the spread and immediate support for the entire travel and tourism ecosystem to kick-start the UK’s economic recovery.”
