There is no shortage of disincentives to travel in the short-term, including the continuing spread of Covid-19 and confusion among the public over the UK government’s traffic light system.
However, quarantine ranked as the number one barrier in both the consumer and trade surveys carried out by business consultancy PwC (PricewaterhouseCoopers) for the TTG Agenda 2021: Surviving the Summer seminar last month.
Despite the resumption of international travel in May, there’s no doubt consumer confidence about travelling overseas this summer has been rocked by government policy and often confusing and contradictory messaging in recent months.
That’s not to say people don’t want to go abroad this summer – pent-up demand for holidays was evident in the survey of 2,000 UK consumers, fuelling the industry hopes of a “super lates” surge in bookings.
Travel barrier
Having to quarantine after both their outbound and inbound journeys was the biggest barrier to overseas travel for consumers, with being required to self-isolate in the destination (32% of consumers) ranking narrowly ahead of quarantine on return to the UK (30%) as the top reasons for not taking an international holiday.
Despite the high level of Covid vaccination in the UK, consumers also remain worried about catching the virus while travelling or while in-destination. This ranked ahead of other disincentives such as government advice against travel, concerns about restrictions affecting the holiday experience, and uncertainty over countries’ place on the green list.
“You can see very clearly that quarantine is the number-one barrier, and there are surprising numbers who are still worried about Covid,” said David Trunkfield, PwC’s hospitality, travel and leisure leader.
Operators also cited UK quarantine as the biggest barrier to travel getting back to normal, ahead of government advice against travel and uncertainty over countries being on the green list.
Testing, testing
Covid testing requirements have also proved an obstacle and ranked as a significant barrier for 25% of consumers, while 65% of tour operators agreed the need for testing was one of the biggest hurdles preventing travel from “getting back to normal”.
Bringing down the cost of tests, particularly pricey PCR tests, remains a big issue, as has reducing the requirement for fully vaccinated travellers to continue taking these tests, particularly when returning from green list countries.
EasyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren called for a reduction in the number of PCR tests people returning to the UK must take during an Agenda 21 interview with TTG editor Sophie Griffiths.
“We need to get rid of PCR tests where it doesn’t need to happen,” he said. “They should not be the default testing mechanism. They are unnecessary in many low-risk countries. The cost puts travelling out of reach for many families.”
MP Huw Merriman, who chairs the Transport Select Committee, told Agenda 21 a study of day two PCR results showed only 0.4% of travellers had tested positive across all categories, with no positive results for those returning from green list countries.
Merriman added the findings strengthened the case to replace PCR tests on day two with cheaper lateral flow tests. “It’s very expensive to have a PCR test so maybe have a lateral flow test, which is cheaper – if you test positive, then have a PCR,” he said. “We will continue pushing that – they are too expensive and not needed.”
Case for transparency
One of the clearest findings of the survey was that many consumers find government advice confusing, with constant changes – such as Portugal’s sudden removal from the green list in June – making it even more difficult to plan summer trips.
A third of holidaymakers said it was not clear what they can and can’t do, while 20% were confused by the traffic light system – only 12% said it made sense as a way of managing the Covid risk from travel.
This confusion has clearly suppressed demand, with 19% saying it had put them off travelling in summer 2021, while 34% admitted constant changes made it difficult to plan.
Lundgren called for more countries with low rates of Covid infection to be added to the green list, as well as more “transparency” in how decisions are made.
He also stressed that while there was “massive underlying demand” for international travel from the UK, consumer confidence had deteriorated due to government policy.
Trade outlook
With summer 2021 demand patchy at best, operators now believe they will not fully reap the rewards of pent-up demand for travel until 2022, while their biggest operational challenge remains further potential virus outbreaks and travel closures.
More optimistically, the vast majority (87%) agreed pent-up demand for holidays in 2022 would boost the industry when travel opens up fully. They also reported more demand for premium holidays and sustainable travel.
Over the next few months, cash will remain a key concern for the trade, with most operators expecting their “crunch period” for cash flow to come in the final three months of 2021 (35%) or the first quarter of 2022 (35%).
“This is reflective of people thinking the summer is going to be subdued and it probably will not be until next summer that we get back to sensible levels of holidays,” added Trunkfield.
Optimism may be in short supply, but 2022 bookings illustrate the extent of the of pent-up demand, even if summer 2021 is unlikely to deliver the kind of recovery hoped for earlier in the year.
