But in normal times, the noise from Westminster at this time of year would be dominated by another debate: speculation over what is in the Budget.

On March 16, George Osborne will rise in the House of Commons to deliver his eighth Budget as chancellor. Some key themes are starting to emerge.

In recent weeks, Osborne has warned of “storm clouds” over the global economy. The slowdown in the Far East, the migrant crisis in Europe, the prospect of Brexit, and the oil price slump has meant that previous growth forecasts are perhaps looking optimistic.

The chancellor has also warned that this situation could impact his spending plans, and that he is not ruling out spending cuts and tax rises. Changes to pension tax relief had also been explored, with rumours suggesting Osborne was looking at a huge shake-up of tax relief on pension contributions. However, this was dropped over the weekend following rumoured uproar from the Tory backbenches.

The fall in global oil prices is also said to have got the chancellor thinking about a rise in fuel duty. The duty has been frozen for four years, but as consumer prices have dropped with the price of oil, his calculation is that a rise wouldn’t be noticed much by consumers.

We can of course expect some kind of an announcement on Air Passenger Duty, but the size and scope of the announcement is not certain. At a minimum, the Budget is when the treasury sets APD rates for the next year (from April 1, 2017).

Sustained pressure by Abta and A Fair Tax on Flying – as well as a growing group of Tory backbenchers – will make it very difficult for the chancellor to seek to raise APD by more than inflation, particularly as the government has been enjoying an excellent response from industry and holidaymakers to the previously announced cuts (abolishing Bands C and D; abolishing APD for under-12s; abolishing APD for under-16s).

The real APD challenge for the chancellor is devolution. We haven’t yet had an announcement from government on how it plans to ensure APD’s devolution to Scotland doesn’t impact negatively on England, but there is also growing speculation that the chancellor’s Budget will devolve APD to Wales.

This step will underline not only the extortionate level of APD across the UK, but the need for treasury to announce how it intends to stop English passengers and businesses from being treated unfairly compared with their Scottish and Welsh neighbours.

The solution which Abta and others have been pushing is a cut to APD by at least 50% across the whole of the UK. We may not achieve this by March 16, but the pressure on the chancellor to deliver a fair and competitive solution for the whole country is building, and will continue to build as Wales and Scotland begin to roll out their promised cuts.

Stephen D’Alfonso is head of public affairs at Abta